BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.009.0
20263.00.008.9
20272.90.008.8
20282.80.008.7
20292.70.008.6

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Horned Lark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhittonARKANSAS351991
PawpawTENNESSEE322012
DeventerMISSOURI202024
HughesARKANSAS132023
Augusta 2ARKANSAS122016
TippoMISSISSIPPI122024
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE102023
WilsonARKANSAS92024
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI92024
HaytiMISSOURI92021
AugustaARKANSAS72001
MaynardARKANSAS72024
KelsoARKANSAS62016
DundeeMISSISSIPPI62022
CommerceMISSISSIPPI61992
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI51994
KennettMISSOURI52024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE52022
West TylerARKANSAS41984
FloydLOUISIANA42017
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA42022
TchulaMISSISSIPPI41975
MoonMISSISSIPPI42021
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI42004
South BendARKANSAS32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.