BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+322%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.43–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.43–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.610.390.83
20270.620.400.84
20280.630.410.85
20290.640.420.86
20300.650.430.87

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Horned Lark in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA122025
ShilohGEORGIA72025
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA72025
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA72025
PinetopsNORTH-CAROLINA72024
DudleyNORTH-CAROLINA62025
HendersonGEORGIA52025
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA52018
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA52024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA52017
DillonSOUTH-CAROLINA52014
MansfieldTENNESSEE52025
TrentonTENNESSEE52007
DolesGEORGIA42019
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA42025
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA42003
BranchvilleVIRGINIA42024
NewtonALABAMA32024
NewtonGEORGIA32021
KinstonNORTH-CAROLINA32024
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA32024
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA32017
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA32025
WagenerSOUTH-CAROLINA32012
St FlorianALABAMA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.