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Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-12%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.98–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.98–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.982.3
20271.60.982.3
20281.60.982.3
20291.60.982.3
20301.60.982.3

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YorkILLINOIS812025
NewberryINDIANA392025
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS142025
BrazilINDIANA142025
RoyaltonILLINOIS92025
CyprssINDIANA62025
ReedsMISSOURI62023
PulaskiILLINOIS52025
ScottsburgINDIANA52025
HillsboroALABAMA41988
DrakesboroKENTUCKY41990
BrownvilleILLINOIS32019
Indian SpgsINDIANA32023
VevayINDIANA32001
CantonKENTUCKY32015
Peace ValleyMISSOURI31980
CassvilleMISSOURI32004
SedaliaMISSOURI32019
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA21998
ElkmontALABAMA22009
CourtlandALABAMA22012
FultonARKANSAS21994
AvocaARKANSAS21967
MarshallARKANSAS22016
KarnakILLINOIS22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.