BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.96–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.96–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.952.2
20261.60.962.2
20271.60.962.2
20281.60.962.2
20291.60.962.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Horned Lark in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YorkILLINOIS332024
NewberryINDIANA272024
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS122024
BrazilINDIANA122024
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY122024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY72024
ReedsMISSOURI62023
PulaskiILLINOIS52023
HillsboroALABAMA41988
WashingtonINDIANA42024
DrakesboroKENTUCKY41990
BrownvilleILLINOIS32019
PimentoINDIANA32022
Indian SpgsINDIANA32023
VevayINDIANA32001
ScottsburgINDIANA32024
CantonKENTUCKY32015
EastviewKENTUCKY32024
Peace ValleyMISSOURI31980
CassvilleMISSOURI32004
SedaliaMISSOURI32019
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA21998
ElkmontALABAMA22009
CourtlandALABAMA22012
FultonARKANSAS21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.