BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-81%Since 1971
8Routes In Region
53Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Horned Lark has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±631.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029
1.4Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.295% range
±631.5%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.60.004.4
20261.50.004.3
20271.50.004.3
20281.50.004.3
20291.40.004.2

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Horned Lark in Sierra Nevada.
GoumazCALIFORNIA512011
SattleyCALIFORNIA92024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA82024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA41998
GeneseeCALIFORNIA31978
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32019
DardanelleCALIFORNIA11997
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.