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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-98%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Horned Lark In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.42
20250.000.000.42
20260.000.000.42
20270.000.000.42
20280.000.000.42

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Horned Lark in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScioOREGON42017
CamasWASHINGTON41977
GazelleCALIFORNIA32021
GarfieldOREGON31975
McminnvilleOREGON32019
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA21991
SalemOREGON22017
Rio DellCALIFORNIA12011
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA12016
YrekaCALIFORNIA12019
AdairOREGON12023
DaytonOREGON12019
CanbyOREGON12011
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON12019
McchordWASHINGTON12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.