BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 76 (95% range 32–120). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
32–12095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 76 (95% range 32–120). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258137125
20268036124
20277935123
20287734121
20297632120

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BriggsdaleCOLORADO4032024
Mica ButteCOLORADO3981987
HookerOKLAHOMA3662024
PantexTEXAS3172024
HaswellCOLORADO3122024
KimballNEBRASKA3052022
RockportCOLORADO2822024
Prospect ValCOLORADO2792000
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO2442023
GrigstonKANSAS2402024
Gordon CreekCOLORADO2272024
Agate 2NEBRASKA2152024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA2142024
Last Chance 2COLORADO2092024
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO2041978
NunnCOLORADO2022021
RatonNEW-MEXICO2021994
DaltonNEBRASKA2002024
CheyenneCOLORADO1932024
LimonCOLORADO1922024
TwichellTEXAS1902023
Adams Co.COLORADO1732022
BrownsonNEBRASKA1702021
Wildhorse LCOLORADO1692024
LeotiKANSAS1682022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.