BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 102 in 2025 to a central estimate of 77 (95% range 33–120). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–12095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 102 in 2025 to a central estimate of 77 (95% range 33–120). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268138125
20278036124
20287935123
20297834122
20307733120

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Horned Lark in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KimballNEBRASKA5062025
BriggsdaleCOLORADO4092025
Mica ButteCOLORADO3981987
HaswellCOLORADO3122024
Last Chance 2COLORADO2892025
RockportCOLORADO2822024
Prospect ValCOLORADO2792000
RushCOLORADO2752025
HookerOKLAHOMA2692025
GrigstonKANSAS2402024
EdlerCOLORADO2272025
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO2122025
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO2041978
RatonNEW-MEXICO2021994
StonehamCOLORADO1872025
BennettCOLORADO1842025
NunnCOLORADO1822025
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO1822025
Wildhorse LCOLORADO1782025
UlyssesKANSAS1752025
CheyenneCOLORADO1742025
Adams Co.COLORADO1732022
TwichellTEXAS1702025
LeotiKANSAS1682022
Gordon CreekCOLORADO1662025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.