BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.30.0013
20275.20.0013
20285.10.0012
20295.00.0012
20304.90.0012

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clay SpringARIZONA502025
RuckerARIZONA422009
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA382025
Forest LakesARIZONA192025
Skull ValleyARIZONA122024
PatagoniaARIZONA112025
AlpineARIZONA102025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA102025
FlagstaffARIZONA82025
MaineARIZONA62023
SunizonaARIZONA41997
PortalARIZONA42002
PrescottARIZONA31989
San SimonARIZONA32023
SprucedaleARIZONA31994
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO32023
Mormon LakeARIZONA21975
Peña BlancaARIZONA21991
WilliamsARIZONA22025
AmadoARIZONA22010
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22008
BlueARIZONA11988
PomereneARIZONA12008
McnealARIZONA12019
DragoonARIZONA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.