BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 7.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.30.0013
20265.30.0013
20275.20.0013
20285.10.0012
20295.00.0012

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Horned Lark in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clay SpringARIZONA632024
RuckerARIZONA422009
Forest LakesARIZONA362024
PatagoniaARIZONA152024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA132024
Skull ValleyARIZONA122024
AlpineARIZONA102023
FlagstaffARIZONA72022
MaineARIZONA62023
SunizonaARIZONA41997
PortalARIZONA42002
PrescottARIZONA31989
San SimonARIZONA32023
SprucedaleARIZONA31994
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO32023
Mormon LakeARIZONA21975
Peña BlancaARIZONA21991
AmadoARIZONA22010
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22008
BlueARIZONA11988
PomereneARIZONA12008
McnealARIZONA12019
DragoonARIZONA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.