BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026170.0037
2027160.0036
2028150.0035
2029140.0034
2030130.0033

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Horned Lark in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coleman CouleeMONTANA2692024
CircleMONTANA2162023
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA2092025
ClarkelenWYOMING1441978
NatronaWYOMING1341992
Jordan SouthMONTANA1292025
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA1282025
Pine TreeWYOMING1161995
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA942025
JordanMONTANA892024
SavagetonWYOMING882025
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA842025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA812024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA812025
Harland FlatWYOMING762025
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA722004
Caballa CrkWYOMING682025
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA622025
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA602025
SussexWYOMING592025
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA582025
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA542022
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA542025
KayceeWYOMING542025
Teapot DomeWYOMING531989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.