BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGrassland birds

Horned Lark in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.83–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.83–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.83–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.843.6
20262.20.833.6
20272.20.833.6
20282.20.833.6
20292.20.833.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Horned Lark in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonyMARYLAND362017
Snow HillMARYLAND271976
HolleyvilleDELAWARE222004
PepperboxDELAWARE222016
HarringtonDELAWARE182024
FrankfordDELAWARE172012
FredericaDELAWARE162014
Milton 2DELAWARE162017
Grove NeckMARYLAND141996
Holleyville 2DELAWARE132024
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE102024
EastonMARYLAND102021
ViennaMARYLAND102024
CokesburyMARYLAND102024
SinepuxentMARYLAND101978
MelitotaMARYLAND92024
MillingtonMARYLAND82024
Piney NeckMARYLAND82024
IndiantownMARYLAND82014
BlackbirdDELAWARE72024
FruitlandMARYLAND61998
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND61993
Mt PleasantDELAWARE52019
DoverDELAWARE51986
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE41991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.