BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in New York

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in New York has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in New York. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in New York is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.25–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in New York is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.25–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.281.8
20271.10.271.8
20281.00.261.8
20291.00.261.8
20301.00.251.8

Horned Lark Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Horned Lark in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville1820251968
Orleans1520251967
Macdougall1220251969
Byron1120251967
Castile820251967
East Java619771967
Mckeever619701969
Rushville520251968
Naples520251966
Cobleskill419711966
Mt Morris420251967
West Seneca419911966
Centerville419751967
Nashville419861968
Number Four419911968
Waddington419981983
Westbrookvle319691969
Ghent319781966
Duanesburg319891966
Durham219691966
Lisle219821970
E Newark219701967
Trumansburg220221967
Phillips Cr219821967
Swain219871968

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.