BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Utah

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Utah has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Utah. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Utah is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 46 (95% range 23–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Utah is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 46 (95% range 23–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026442167
2027452268
2028452268
2029452268
2030462369

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Horned Lark in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wah Wah39620241987
Clive29620212001
Snowville27020251999
Gandy18120151997
Vernon17520251992
Notch Peak16920241986
Pine Creek14520251997
Neponset Res11820181995
Peplin Mountain10420251999
Wendover9920111969
Salt Springs9820251986
Jericho Junction9120251997
Indian Peak9020211992
Stock Res8820211986
Fish Springs8720251987
Gilson Butte8520041993
Glen Canyon8320251991
Goshen7720251968
Grouse Creek7520101982
Kelton6919951992
Delta6520251987
Grantsville6520252001
Willow Creek6320241986
Canyon Rims6320251998
Westwater6220251997

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.