BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Utah

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Utah has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has risen sharply in Utah: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 47 (95% range 24–70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 47 (95% range 24–70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025452268
2026462368
2027462369
2028462369
2029472470

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Horned Lark in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Snowville77920241999
Wah Wah39620241987
Clive29620212001
Tule Valley26220131999
Peplin Mountain25720241999
Gandy18120151997
Notch Peak16920241986
Fish Springs13320241987
Pine Creek12520231997
Neponset Res11820181995
Jericho Junction11020241997
Wendover9920111969
Delta9020241987
Indian Peak9020211992
Stock Res8820211986
Westwater8720241997
Gilson Butte8520041993
Vernon8420241992
Grouse Creek7520101982
Kelton6919951992
Salt Springs6420241986
Willow Creek6320241986
Beryl6320241987
Saleratus Cr5820181995
Grantsville5720242001

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.