BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Michigan has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Michigan is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.56–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.725.1
20262.90.685.0
20272.80.645.0
20282.80.605.0
20292.70.564.9

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Horned Lark in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tyre5919961967
Ola4720241974
Owendale4519941978
Maple Rapids3520231987
Fowlerville2620191974
St Charles2020191967
Homer1620211980
Adrian1420181966
Bell Oak1320081966
Coopersville1120241979
Hamburg 2820242004
Holt820241969
North Branch719991974
Belding620031991
Galesburg620241966
Sand Lake619931993
Hamburg620001981
Richmond620152001
Bell Oak 2520232016
Lake City520101970
Traverse Cty519851974
Nashville520231968
No Bradley520241970
Prattville520211967
Juniata520241966

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.