BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in New Mexico is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in New Mexico is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.70.0033
20267.70.0032
20276.80.0031
20285.80.0030
20294.80.0029

Horned Lark Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Horned Lark in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wagon Mound20419781970
Raton20219941994
Farley16220241979
Datil15819951993
Grenville15420241968
Corona East9219951993
Maljamar8819771975
Clovis7720241993
Nageesi6820241968
Sanostee6820242022
Shiprock6420241995
Horse Spgs6020241975
Torreon5920241975
Fence Lake4520241975
Correo4519821975
Deming4319751968
Sedan3820241994
Newcomb3820212021
Crownpoint3719961968
Maxwell3120241996
Pastura3020241993
Mountainair2820241992
Horse Mtn2620241968
Floyd2420241968
Lake Valley2420241979

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.