BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in New Mexico is projected to fall about 79% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in New Mexico is projected to fall about 79% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.90.0033
20278.00.0032
20287.10.0031
20296.10.0030
20305.20.0029

Horned Lark Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Horned Lark in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wagon Mound20419781970
Raton20219941994
Grenville18220251968
Datil15819951993
Farley12720251979
Shiprock9520251995
Corona East9219951993
Maljamar8819771975
Roswell8620251968
Clovis7720241993
Sanostee7320252022
Horse Spgs6320251975
Floyd6220251968
Fence Lake5320251975
Torreon4620251975
Correo4519821975
Sedan4420251994
Deming4319751968
Newcomb3820212021
Crownpoint3719961968
Maxwell3720251996
Pastura3020251993
Mountainair2820241992
Nageesi2620251968
Horse Mtn2620241968

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.