BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Nevada has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-30%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Nevada is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 0.00–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Nevada is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 0.00–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025240.0052
2026240.0052
2027240.0051
2028240.0051
2029240.0051

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Horned Lark in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Illipah47820211968
Mill City25520232013
Mizpah23220241988
Darroughs Hot Spgs21320242000
Thorne13219791968
Midas10020241974
Frenchman8719781973
Toiyabe Nf8620241987
Cortez8120241968
Big Smokey V7319881988
Silver Peak 27020242017
Oreana6420032002
Eureka5820241968
Beatty5820241986
Bald Mtn.5620241992
Dobbin Creek5220181968
Chimney Res.4620242005
Willis4520241988
Calico Spr3519741968
Vya3319741968
Rye Patch3319871968
Majors Place3320241968
Piute Mdws3120242005
Sutcliffe3119721968
Silver Peak3120061968

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.