BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Nevada has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 0.00–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 0.00–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026240.0051
2027240.0051
2028240.0051
2029230.0051
2030230.0050

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Horned Lark in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Illipah47820211968
Mill City25520232013
Mizpah23220241988
Darroughs Hot Spgs21320242000
Thorne13219791968
Midas8720251974
Frenchman8719781973
Toiyabe Nf8620241987
Caliente7620251988
Big Smokey V7319881988
Oreana6420032002
Chimney Res.6020252005
Eureka5820241968
Dobbin Creek5220181968
Cortez5020251968
Majors Place4520251968
Calico Spr3519741968
Vya3319741968
Rye Patch3319871968
Sutcliffe3119721968
Silver Peak3120061968
Charleston Reservoir2620242024
Sheldon Nwr2620191992
Piute Mdws2520252005
Bald Mtn.2220251992

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.