BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in North Dakota has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 37 (95% range 0.00–76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 37 (95% range 0.00–76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025400.4980
2026390.0079
2027380.0078
2028370.0077
2029370.0076

Horned Lark Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Horned Lark in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas Crk14120241982
Dickinson13120241968
Glen Ullin9120221982
Sydney8319831967
Bentley8120241988
Edgeley7220241980
Ft Yates7220041968
Golva6820231979
Regan6020221968
Cedar Creek5420221968
Carson5120241988
Bowman4620241967
Cooperstown4520241969
Zap4520241967
Buchanan4320241967
Parshall4120131982
Wild Rose4020241982
Horsehead Lk3720241980
Lakota3520091968
Loraine3420191982
Carpio3320231967
Danzig 23320242019
Powers Lake3220241980
Sheyenne Lk3220241980
Stanley2920241967

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.