BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in North Dakota has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 0.00–75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 0.00–75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026400.4579
2027390.0078
2028380.0077
2029370.0076
2030360.0075

Horned Lark Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Horned Lark in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Douglas Crk17620251982
Dickinson12820251968
Gorham9420251968
Sydney8319831967
Bentley8120241988
Glen Ullin8120251982
Ft Yates7220041968
Edgeley6620251980
Regan6220251968
Bowman6020251967
Golva5820251979
Cedar Creek5420221968
Carson5420251988
Zap4520241967
Stanley4420251967
Buchanan4320251967
Parshall4120131982
Sheyenne Lk4120251980
Cooperstown3820251969
Danzig 23720252019
Lakota3520091968
Wild Rose3520251982
Loraine3420191982
Emerado3320251973
Carpio3320231967

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.