BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Indiana has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Indiana is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Indiana is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025137.518
2026137.418
2027127.318
2028127.217
2029127.117

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Horned Lark in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sexton5120241981
Anderson3420242000
Tipton3019921966
Jamestown3020241986
Brookville2920241966
Newberry2720241999
Middlebury2620241989
W Lafayette2520241981
Witts Station2320242000
Thorntown2120241982
Montpelier2120242018
Kewanna1920221981
Berne1820241966
Shelbyville1820241983
Muncie1719971981
Packertown1620041967
New Brunswick1620242024
Wallace1520242000
Plainfield1519991999
Packertown 21320242005
Brazil1220241966
Frankfort1220221999
Decatur1220241999
Galveston1120241981
Wabash1120241981

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.