BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Indiana has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Indiana is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Indiana is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.217
2027127.117
2028127.017
2029126.917
2030126.817

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Horned Lark in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brookville8720251966
Sexton5120241981
Witts Station4120252000
Jamestown3920251986
Newberry3920251999
W Lafayette3820251981
Tipton3019921966
Decatur2320251999
Monticello2220251981
Montpelier2120242018
Kewanna1920221981
Muncie1719971981
Middlebury1620251989
Packertown1620041967
New Brunswick1520252024
Wallace1520242000
Plainfield1519991999
Brazil1420251966
Packertown 21320252005
Berne1220251966
Frankfort1220221999
Columbia Cty1020241981
Thorntown1020251982
Anderson920252000
Friendswood720241986

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.