BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Ohio has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Ohio is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Ohio is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.417
2027127.417
2028127.417
2029127.417
2030127.417

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Horned Lark in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Napoleon8920251966
Bismark8619951967
W Carrollton7620151989
Lockport3720251966
Bloomville3620251992
Botkins3120191992
Kenton3020251966
Vickery2820251996
Kunkle2720251992
Troy2619961966
N Baltimore2520191966
Cosmos2520191966
Casstown2120252000
No Kenton2020251966
Graytown1919841966
Marion 21820252024
Fulton1720251966
Darrtown1720211966
Newport1719941966
Peru1619781966
Harveysburg 21520121997
Harveysburg1319961966
Pittsfield1020241992
Lenox1019811966
London920121997

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.