BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Louisiana has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-29%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Louisiana is projected to rise about 192% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+192%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±426.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Louisiana is projected to rise about 192% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.001.1
20260.370.001.1
20270.370.001.1
20280.360.001.1
20290.360.001.1

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Horned Lark in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Floyd420171988
Transylvania420221998
Mer Rouge420071971
Rayville320081972
Freetown219781978
Tensas Nwr220151987
Concord220192006
Rayville 2220222009
Shaw220241993
Frogmore220241998
Delhi220182017
Mayflower120241975
Fillmore119861986

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.