BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Maryland has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in Maryland: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Maryland is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.1–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Maryland is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.1–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.24.1
20262.61.24.1
20272.61.14.1
20282.61.14.0
20292.61.14.0

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Horned Lark in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harmony3620171966
Snow Hill2719761966
Grove Neck1419961992
Easton1020211966
Vienna1020241966
Cokesbury1020241966
Sinepuxent1019781966
Melitota920241966
Millington820241967
Piney Neck820241966
Indiantown820141977
Williamsport720241966
Emmitsburg620241967
Fruitland619981966
Furnace Town320242015
Mt Nebo219911969
Olney220241966
Warfieldsbrg220181966
Fowblesburg220171967
Walnut220191999
Largo219771977
Cheltenham219831966
Hughesville220141968
Golden Hill220241966
Honga220241966

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.