BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in North Carolina has surged: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+442%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in North Carolina: up 442% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in North Carolina is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.52–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in North Carolina is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 0.74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.52–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.461.6
20271.00.481.6
20281.00.491.6
20291.10.511.6
20301.10.521.6

Horned Lark Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Horned Lark in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dortches1220251990
Speed720251986
Pinetops720242006
California 2720252014
Dudley620252002
Wards Corner520182011
Genoa520241990
Jackson520171996
Cherryville419681968
Lake Surf420032003
Jamesville420252011
Kinston320241987
Rheasville320172010
Cypress Lakes320252008
Rowland320241990
Fairmont219811974
Rose220251990
Arcola220222015
Madison219691969
Ostwalt220152015
Montague220241994
Cokesbury220251996
Sheffield220132010
Waco220071989
Raeford120101990

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.