BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Kansas has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 33 (95% range 18–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 33 (95% range 18–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025331847
2026331847
2027331847
2028331848
2029331848

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Horned Lark in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grigston24020242000
Leoti16820222000
Wallace15120221967
Winona13520182000
Lakin12920221967
Rexford12020242000
Missler11220191975
Ulysses10320242000
Ruleton9620221981
Gove6720221972
Gray6520191967
Dalton6320241969
Plymell5820242000
Beloit 25720182005
Coldwater5520221969
Hays4520141967
Ash Valley4420192000
Berwet3920242000
Wellington3820241968
Leoville3620181967
Coats2520241967
Damar2220162000
Hodges2020142000
Logan1920221967
St John1820191967

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.