BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Kansas has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Kansas is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 17–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Kansas is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 17–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026321747
2027321747
2028321747
2029321747
2030321747

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Horned Lark in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grigston24020242000
Ulysses17520252000
Leoti16820222000
Wallace15120221967
Winona13520182000
Lakin12920221967
Missler11220191975
Ruleton9620221981
Rexford7620252000
Gove6720221972
Gray6520191967
Plymell5920252000
Beloit 25720182005
Coldwater5520221969
Wellington4820251968
Hays4520141967
Ash Valley4420192000
Leoville3620181967
Dalton3420251969
Olsburg2920252002
Albert2620251967
Damar2220162000
Coats2020251967
Logan2020251967
Hodges2020142000

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.