BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Colorado has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Colorado is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 0.00–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Colorado is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 0.00–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025320.0076
2026300.0074
2027290.0072
2028270.0071
2029250.0069

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Horned Lark in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Briggsdale40320241968
Mica Butte39819871968
Haswell31220241992
Rockport28220241994
Prospect Val27920001992
Prospect Valley 224420232001
Gordon Creek22720241988
Last Chance 220920242017
Nunn20220211995
Cheyenne19320241990
Limon19220241992
Adams Co.17320221989
Wildhorse L16920241988
Lamar15720241973
Timpas15420191995
Burlington15120242003
Rush14320241983
Grover14220241992
Two Buttes13020151973
Stoneham12620211992
Fleming12320241968
Mesita12120242005
Kirk11520231992
Boyero11420171979
Crowley11220241989

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.