BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Alabama has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Alabama is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Alabama is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.18
20260.030.000.18
20270.030.000.18
20280.030.000.17
20290.030.000.17

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Horned Lark in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Summitt519731973
Hillsboro419881971
Pine Grove420171983
Newton320242017
St Florian220221971
Valhermoso Spgs219981966
Elkmont220092001
Courtland220122001
Whitehouse219901987
Grangeburg220232019
Wheeler Dam120151993
Dawson119721966
Carter Grove120072003
Lakeview120022002
Eufaula120172017

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.