BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Virginia has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has collapsed in Virginia: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Virginia is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Virginia is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.56
20260.150.000.56
20270.140.000.55
20280.140.000.55
20290.130.000.54

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Horned Lark in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clinchport519701970
Branchville420242009
Stanley319781970
Partlow319941983
Concord319741974
Gloucester220152003
Truhart220242000
Chincoteag W220211992
Cape Charles220171992
Surry220242002
Quinby220221966
Newsoms220241991
Pungo220182003
Brandy Station220242022
Lake Anna220212021
Star Tannery119881981
Taylorstown119891970
Churchville120041972
Edinburg119821982
Jerome120182005
Rural Retrt119831983
Port Royal120191977
David119941968
Newbern119701970
Natural Brid119931991

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.