BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Mississippi has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Mississippi is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.41–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Mississippi is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.41–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.353.1
20261.80.373.1
20271.80.383.2
20281.80.403.2
20291.80.413.2

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Horned Lark in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tippo1220241996
Dahomey Nwr920242011
Dundee620221971
Commerce619921967
Tchula 2519941976
Tchula419751970
Delta N.F.420041995
Moon420211996
Tchula 3320241995
Tupelo219901990
Aberdeen220231970
Shelby220232023
Benton120021999
Isola120211976
Tallahatchie120241996
Olive Branch119881988
Cockrum120191984
Duck Hill120062006
Corinth119851985
Macon120241987
Winterville120112011
Embry120141988

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.