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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Arkansas has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Arkansas is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Arkansas is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.004.2
20260.620.004.2
20270.570.004.1
20280.510.004.0
20290.460.004.0

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Horned Lark in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitton3519911967
Hughes1320231967
Augusta 21220162002
Wilson920241993
Augusta720011967
Maynard720241968
Kelso620162010
West Tyler419841976
South Bend320231972
England320172012
Harrisburg220091968
Saffell219791979
Fulton219941992
Avoca219671967
Lafe220222017
Marshall220162016
Gillett220242010
Ulm220131986
Eudora120241977
Ashdown119821982
Zion119791976
Dell120242010
Hickory Ridge120212010

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.