BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-73%Since 1970
70Routes In State
56Years

Notable Horned Lark Trends in Arizona

long arc declinecomputed index

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Arizona is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2029
1.5Projected 2029 index
0.00–1595% range
±66.4%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.60.0017
20263.10.0017
20272.60.0016
20282.10.0016
20291.50.0015

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Horned Lark in Arizona.
Mt Trumbull16719931974
Many Farms15820061993
Rose Wells8419781968
Navajo Trail7620241994
Yampai7519771969
Seligman7420241991
Oraibi6420221991
Clay Spring6320241988
Coolidge5819851974
Castle Butte5120071992
Peach Spring4420241992
The Gap4319761968
Rucker4220091993
Forest Lakes3620241992
Round Rock3119891968
Zeniff1919841968
Antares1920241994
Palo Verde1820131992
Hunt1720181968
Laguna1720231968
Hope 21620182014
Black Mesa1519951988
Patagonia1520241968
Palo Verde 21520242014
Toroweap1520241994

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.