BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in West Virginia has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has collapsed in West Virginia: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±272.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±272.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±272.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.33
20260.000.000.33
20270.000.000.33
20280.000.000.33
20290.000.000.33

Horned Lark Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Horned Lark in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Martinsburg320221968
Shanghai220212001
Three Forks219831983
Rockport219671967
Moundsville219721972
Albright219701967
Yellow Spg219831972
Hix120031975
Pedro119951994
Paradise119941967
Richwood120242024
Sugar Grove119661966
Dailey119731973
Monongah119691969
Bebee119811973
Greer119731967
Meadowville119721972
Rio119911976
Sleepy Creek119701970
Clinton119761966

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.