BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Idaho has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Idaho is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 10–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Idaho is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 10–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026311051
2027311051
2028311051
2029311051
2030311051

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Horned Lark in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Circular Bu26420251985
Hot Spring25320251988
Tractor Flat16420251985
Lost River15520251985
Dubois14220251968
Mud Lake9820251988
Twin Buttes9220251985
Carey9220251989
Crane Creek8920191988
Ririe7420251971
Acequia7320121979
Glenns Ferry6519861968
Almo4820251988
Kyle Canyon4720251985
Blacks Creek2720171968
Silver City2620251989
Henry2519831973
Triangle2220251985
Pasadena Val2220161987
Joel2020241989
Craters1920181979
Mora1920252018
Iron Springs1120241988
Blackft Res1020181984
Sawtooth Cty1020141988

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.