BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Tennessee has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in Tennessee: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Tennessee is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Tennessee is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.001.0
20260.280.001.0
20270.260.001.0
20280.240.000.99
20290.220.000.98

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Horned Lark in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw3220121966
Fish Springs1019691969
Pawpaw 21020232013
Tiptonville520221966
Trenton520071988
Jones Gap220011982
Brownsville220171966
Petersburg219701970
Oliver Spgs219721966
Corryton Rd219711966
Tibbs120241966
Whiteville120171986
Big Sandy119691966
Mansfield120241966
Silerton119971981
Humboldt120241969
Indian Mound119731972
Collinwood120191966
Campbellsville119791970
Lewis Forest119811973
Belotes Bend119891971
Bradyville119921991
Tullahoma120051968
Union Hill120141968
Glen120221967

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.