BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Montana

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Montana has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Montana. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Montana is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Montana is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025310.0062
2026300.0062
2027300.0061
2028290.0061
2029290.0060

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Horned Lark in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glasgow39620241968
Virgelle30320241979
Oswego28020241978
Dinosaurs H.M.27920242018
Circle21620231969
Redstone20520241968
Gildford19820242015
Coleman Coulee18820232017
Shelby17420242015
Harlem16220211968
Westby16120242015
Sunburst14720071968
Hay Lake13920221988
Glentana13720242015
Chinook13120242015
Ester Lake12720242015
Jordan8920241968
Saco8520242015
Great Falls8020241972
Whitlash7820242009
Lambert7720242021
Wheat Basin7720242017
Roundup7120242016
Church Hill6620242017
Winifred 26420242024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.