BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.065.3
20262.60.005.2
20272.50.005.1
20282.40.005.0
20292.30.004.9

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Horned Lark in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren4619841967
Stet3219951972
Norborne3120232006
Madison2120241971
Deventer2020241967
Sni Mills2019901967
Hamilton1719851973
Kahoka1419981967
Kahoka21220242002
Rockingham1120241969
Danville1020241967
Frankford1020241985
Hayti920212016
Luray720232019
Dover720242013
Cameron720231986
Reeds620231974
Ohio620241972
Rensselaer520241971
Kennett520242015
Milford520242018
Emden520242017
Auburn520212014
New Hampton420242024
Millwood420241999

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.