BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Oklahoma has surged: up 966% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+966%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in Oklahoma: up 966% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 6.6–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 6.6–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026225.439
2027225.739
2028236.039
2029236.340
2030236.640

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Horned Lark in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hooker26920251992
Keyes15520241992
Felt6120241968
Clear Lake5720251992
Cooperton4020251992
Beaver3520181979
Hunter2720241992
Sickles2420211992
Hardesty2320241970
Rosston1820181968
Cashion1720241992
Reed1520191969
Hollis1320251993
Elgin1120152013
Jet1020241995
Lookout820251967
Woodward820251992
Douglas620221967
Tegarden520161970
Sandbluff519951993
Randlett420251967
Peoria420221967
Ardmore319841967
Cookietown320061968
Colony319951995

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.