BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in South Carolina has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-67%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in South Carolina: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in South Carolina is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in South Carolina is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.47
20270.140.000.47
20280.140.000.46
20290.130.000.46
20300.130.000.45

Horned Lark Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Horned Lark in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dillon520141992
Wagener320121990
Joanna220001999
Ward220252018
Green Sea220232023
Anderson220022002
Rome120252012
Holly Hill120162016
Nixville120101998
New Holland120051995
Bishopville120241983
Landrum119861986
Mount Pisgah120091998
Bennettsville120052005
Campobello120112011
Pinewood120142002
Chesnee120142004

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.