BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Nebraska has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Nebraska is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 15–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Nebraska is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 15–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261437
2026261537
2027261538
2028261538
2029261538

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Horned Lark in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kimball30520221975
Agate 221520242002
Hay Springs21420242018
Stratton21020241975
Dalton20020241968
Brownson17020212021
Agate13420011967
Arthur13120241985
Murray Lake10220241987
Paxton4920161967
Crookston4820242018
Benkelman4520221986
Champion4020182018
Marsland3720212018
Bassett3520242018
Piester Lake3220241967
Hendley2920242018
Culbertson2820242018
Sutherland2620242023
Murdock2420242018
Berea2320191980
Ringgold2220241985
Eagle Creek2120241967
Mullen1920231990
Maxwell1920232018

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.