BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Nebraska has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Nebraska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 16–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Nebraska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 16–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271538
2027271538
2028271539
2029271639
2030271639

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Horned Lark in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kimball50620251975
Arthur15620251985
Dalton15520251968
Murray Lake15120251987
Berea14620251980
Agate13420011967
Hay Springs13020252018
Stratton12520251975
Brownson11320252021
Agate 210020252002
Culbertson5320252018
Paxton4920161967
Surprise4720251970
Champion4020182018
Marsland3720212018
Crookston3320252018
Crescent Lk3220251980
Murdock2920252018
Hampton2420252018
Benkelman2320251986
Bartley2120251970
Piester Lake2120251967
Kenesaw1920251967
Ringgold1920251985
Mullen1920231990

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.