BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Minnesota has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+192%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Horned Lark Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in Minnesota: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Minnesota is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Minnesota is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026103.817
2027103.817
2028103.917
2029103.917
2030114.017

Horned Lark Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Horned Lark in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockhart8020251993
Beltrami5520251967
Appleton4720251978
Oklee4120211979
Chokio North3820251993
New London3720241994
Redwood Fall2520251978
Gluek2520191968
Arlington2420251967
Glyndon2420251978
Chokio2220251971
Ashby1920211997
Grygla1720171976
Courtland1620251978
Chatfield 21620252003
Franklin1420251993
Chandler1320251969
Fairmont1320251993
Erie1220171976
Lakeville1120251968
Le Roy1120251993
Austin1120231994
Frontenac1120241993
Le Center1120251993
Wylie1020241970

Horned Lark Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.