BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
224Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 41 (95% range 30–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 41 (95% range 30–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026413052
2027413052
2028413052
2029413052
2030413052

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Horned Lark in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IllipahNEVADA4782021
Wah WahUTAH3962024
Bowden HillsOREGON3542025
Arid Land ErWASHINGTON3291996
CliveUTAH2962021
SnowvilleUTAH2702025
Circular BuIDAHO2642025
Mill CityNEVADA2552023
Hot SpringIDAHO2532025
MizpahNEVADA2322024
Darroughs Hot SpgsNEVADA2132024
Battle MtnOREGON1992025
Willow SpgOREGON1981971
GandyUTAH1812015
HarringtonWASHINGTON1812012
VernonUTAH1752025
Notch PeakUTAH1692024
Lone RockOREGON1682024
RichlandWASHINGTON1672024
Tractor FlatIDAHO1642025
Lost RiverIDAHO1552025
CecilOREGON1532025
HattonWASHINGTON1501994
Pine CreekUTAH1452025
DuboisIDAHO1422025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.