BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
223Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Great Basin is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 29–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Great Basin is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 29–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025402952
2026412952
2027412952
2028412952
2029412952

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Horned Lark in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SnowvilleUTAH7792024
IllipahNEVADA4782021
Wah WahUTAH3962024
Arid Land ErWASHINGTON3291996
CliveUTAH2962021
Circular BuIDAHO2772024
Battle MtnOREGON2682024
Tule ValleyUTAH2622013
Peplin MountainUTAH2572024
Mill CityNEVADA2552023
MizpahNEVADA2322024
Bowden HillsOREGON2282024
Darroughs Hot SpgsNEVADA2132024
Willow SpgOREGON1981971
Blitzen 2OREGON1822024
CecilOREGON1822024
Lost RiverIDAHO1812024
GandyUTAH1812015
HarringtonWASHINGTON1812012
Hot SpringIDAHO1802014
Tractor FlatIDAHO1732024
Notch PeakUTAH1692024
Lone RockOREGON1682024
MikkaloOREGON1682023
RichlandWASHINGTON1672024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.