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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2010, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2010TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2010 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2010, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672010
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20060.030.000.27
20070.030.000.26
20080.020.000.26
20090.020.000.25
20100.010.000.25

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Horned Lark in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonyMAINE61990
MckeeverNEW-YORK61970
StrattonVERMONT61967
Number FourNEW-YORK41991
BrooksMAINE31979
HighmarketNEW-YORK32003
S WallingfrdVERMONT31986
GreensboroVERMONT31969
MedwayMAINE21976
WashburnMAINE22005
UnderwoodNEW-YORK21971
W RutlandVERMONT21968
LudlowMAINE11986
BoundaryMAINE12004
Ft FairfieldMAINE12004
St DavidMAINE12005
KasoagNEW-YORK11972
DannemoraNEW-YORK11968
St JohnsburyVERMONT11975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.