BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2010, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2010TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2010 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2010, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672010
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20060.030.000.27
20070.030.000.26
20080.020.000.26
20090.020.000.25
20100.010.000.25

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Horned Lark in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonyMAINE61990
MckeeverNEW-YORK61970
StrattonVERMONT61967
Number FourNEW-YORK41991
BrooksMAINE31979
HighmarketNEW-YORK32003
S WallingfrdVERMONT31986
GreensboroVERMONT31969
MedwayMAINE21976
WashburnMAINE22005
UnderwoodNEW-YORK21971
W RutlandVERMONT21968
LudlowMAINE11986
BoundaryMAINE12004
Ft FairfieldMAINE12004
St DavidMAINE12005
KasoagNEW-YORK11972
DannemoraNEW-YORK11968
St JohnsburyVERMONT11975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.