BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±175%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0020
20260.000.0020
20270.000.0020
20280.000.0020
20290.000.0020

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Horned Lark in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DemingNEW-MEXICO431975
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO242024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO202023
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO191977
RodeoNEW-MEXICO192024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO172024
GageNEW-MEXICO122024
ValentineTEXAS101986
Red RockNEW-MEXICO92024
Delaware CrkTEXAS62015
LangtryTEXAS52000
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42024
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO42024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO42024
GirvinTEXAS42015
MarfaTEXAS42017
EngleNEW-MEXICO31987
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22008
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22023
AltudaTEXAS22009
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12021
PinonNEW-MEXICO12006
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12024
ComstockTEXAS11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.