BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Horned Lark In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0020
20270.000.0020
20280.000.0020
20290.000.0020
20300.000.0020

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Horned Lark in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoswellNEW-MEXICO862025
DemingNEW-MEXICO431975
RodeoNEW-MEXICO242025
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO242024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO191977
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO102025
ValentineTEXAS101986
GageNEW-MEXICO82025
Delaware CrkTEXAS62015
LangtryTEXAS52000
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO42025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO42025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO42025
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO42025
GirvinTEXAS42015
MarfaTEXAS42017
EngleNEW-MEXICO31987
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO22025
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22008
AltudaTEXAS22009
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12021
PinonNEW-MEXICO12006
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12025
ComstockTEXAS11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.