BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Horned Lark In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±247.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±247.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±247.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.55
20270.170.000.54
20280.160.000.54
20290.150.000.53
20300.140.000.52

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Horned Lark in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BemidjiMINNESOTA71979
Sand LakeMICHIGAN61993
Lake CityMICHIGAN52010
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN51985
HollisterWISCONSIN42007
ExelandWISCONSIN32025
CunardMICHIGAN21992
Bear LakeMICHIGAN22002
GilchristMICHIGAN21991
IronsMICHIGAN21980
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN21994
SkeelsMICHIGAN21992
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN21969
Cedar RunMICHIGAN21999
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN22007
BackusMINNESOTA21983
DebsMINNESOTA21978
LudeMINNESOTA22023
WarroadMINNESOTA22025
GreenbushMINNESOTA22016
GilmanWISCONSIN22025
IrmaWISCONSIN22000
Maple GroveMICHIGAN11990
WilsonMICHIGAN11995
IsabellaMICHIGAN11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.