BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.8–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.25.813
20279.25.813
20289.25.813
20299.25.813
20309.25.813

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NapoleonOHIO892025
BismarkOHIO861995
TyreMICHIGAN591996
AnnatonWISCONSIN552025
OwendaleMICHIGAN451994
New LondonMINNESOTA372024
LockportOHIO372025
OlaMICHIGAN352025
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN302025
VickeryOHIO282025
FowlervilleMICHIGAN262019
N BaltimoreOHIO252019
St CharlesMICHIGAN202019
KewannaINDIANA192022
AshbyMINNESOTA192021
GraytownOHIO191984
HudsonWISCONSIN182025
GrimmsWISCONSIN182021
HollandWISCONSIN182025
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN172024
MiddleburyINDIANA162025
PackertownINDIANA162004
HomerMICHIGAN162021
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA162025
N AndoverWISCONSIN152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.