BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 5.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 5.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.35.913
20269.35.913
20279.35.913
20289.35.913
20299.35.913

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Horned Lark in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO861995
NapoleonOHIO662024
TyreMICHIGAN591996
AnnatonWISCONSIN492024
OlaMICHIGAN472024
OwendaleMICHIGAN451994
VickeryOHIO432024
LockportOHIO382024
New LondonMINNESOTA372024
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN352023
MiddleburyINDIANA262024
FowlervilleMICHIGAN262019
N BaltimoreOHIO252019
KielWISCONSIN252022
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA232024
St CharlesMICHIGAN202019
KewannaINDIANA192022
AshbyMINNESOTA192021
GraytownOHIO191984
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN182024
GrimmsWISCONSIN182021
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN172024
PackertownINDIANA162004
HomerMICHIGAN162021
HudsonWISCONSIN162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.