BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
180Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.45
20260.010.000.44
20270.010.000.43
20280.000.000.42
20290.000.000.42

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Horned Lark in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish SpringsTENNESSEE101969
WilliamsportMARYLAND72024
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA72009
East JavaNEW-YORK61977
MartinsburgPENNSYLVANIA62024
GeeseytownPENNSYLVANIA62023
SummittALABAMA51973
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA52024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA52024
ClinchportVIRGINIA51970
Pine GroveALABAMA42017
CobleskillNEW-YORK41971
CentervilleNEW-YORK41975
SmithfieldOHIO41993
Coal RunOHIO41976
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK31969
MeadowbrookOHIO31971
Baxter RidgeOHIO32016
PomeroyOHIO31973
WilgusOHIO31992
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA31976
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA31983
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA32019
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA32023
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA31967

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.