BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Piedmont has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Piedmont is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Piedmont is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.79
20260.330.000.80
20270.330.000.80
20280.330.000.80
20290.330.000.80

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Horned Lark in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA172024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND62024
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA41968
Sporting HilPENNSYLVANIA41977
ShrewsburyPENNSYLVANIA42023
ChathamPENNSYLVANIA42024
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA31979
AkronPENNSYLVANIA31997
PartlowVIRGINIA31994
ConcordVIRGINIA31974
OlneyMARYLAND22024
WarfieldsbrgMARYLAND22018
FowblesburgMARYLAND22017
EarltonMARYLAND22022
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA22022
MadisonNORTH-CAROLINA21969
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA22007
SheffieldNORTH-CAROLINA22013
OstwaltNORTH-CAROLINA22015
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA21990
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA22023
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA22024
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA22019
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA22000
AndersonSOUTH-CAROLINA22002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.