BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Piedmont has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Piedmont is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Piedmont is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.79
20260.330.000.80
20270.330.000.80
20280.330.000.80
20290.330.000.80

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Horned Lark in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA172024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND62024
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA41968
Sporting HilPENNSYLVANIA41977
ShrewsburyPENNSYLVANIA42023
ChathamPENNSYLVANIA42024
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA31979
AkronPENNSYLVANIA31997
PartlowVIRGINIA31994
ConcordVIRGINIA31974
OlneyMARYLAND22024
WarfieldsbrgMARYLAND22018
FowblesburgMARYLAND22017
EarltonMARYLAND22022
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA22022
MadisonNORTH-CAROLINA21969
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA22007
SheffieldNORTH-CAROLINA22013
OstwaltNORTH-CAROLINA22015
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA21990
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA22023
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA22024
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA22019
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA22000
AndersonSOUTH-CAROLINA22002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.