BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Piedmont has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.000.79
20270.330.000.79
20280.330.000.79
20290.330.000.79
20300.330.000.79

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Horned Lark in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA102025
EmmitsburgMARYLAND42025
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA41968
Sporting HilPENNSYLVANIA41977
ShrewsburyPENNSYLVANIA42023
OlneyMARYLAND32025
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA31979
AkronPENNSYLVANIA31997
ChathamPENNSYLVANIA32025
PartlowVIRGINIA31994
ConcordVIRGINIA31974
WarfieldsbrgMARYLAND22018
FowblesburgMARYLAND22017
IjamsvilleMARYLAND22025
EarltonMARYLAND22022
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA22022
MadisonNORTH-CAROLINA21969
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA22007
SheffieldNORTH-CAROLINA22013
OstwaltNORTH-CAROLINA22015
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA21990
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA22023
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA22025
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA22019
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.