BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+154%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Horned Lark In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±249%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±249%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.90.0013
20265.90.0013
20276.00.0013
20286.00.0013
20296.10.0013

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Horned Lark in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeidelbergTEXAS222024
RaymondvilleTEXAS122024
HondoTEXAS22007
RachalTEXAS11978
Agua NuevaTEXAS12013
KingsvilleTEXAS12024
El IndioTEXAS11971
El SauzTEXAS12012
ProgresoTEXAS12011
SejitaTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.