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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGrassland birds

Horned Lark in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+109%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 201% by 2012 — from 0.07 in 2007 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.04–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+201%Change by 2012TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2012 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 201% by 2012 — from 0.07 in 2007 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.04–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672012
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20080.190.030.36
20090.190.030.36
20100.200.030.36
20110.200.030.36
20120.200.040.37

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Horned Lark in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SandbluffOKLAHOMA51995
Mer RougeLOUISIANA42007
Big CedarOKLAHOMA21979
BlancoOKLAHOMA21967
CanadianOKLAHOMA22000
PocolaOKLAHOMA22005
AthensTEXAS21969
AshdownARKANSAS11982
FillmoreLOUISIANA11986
PhillipsOKLAHOMA12003
IndianolaOKLAHOMA12004
BethelOKLAHOMA11996
MatoyOKLAHOMA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.