BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.3–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 8.3–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025178.125
2026178.126
2027178.226
2028178.226
2029178.326

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StrattonNEBRASKA2102024
ArthurNEBRASKA1312024
RexfordKANSAS1202024
MisslerKANSAS1122019
GoveKANSAS672022
GrayKANSAS652019
DaltonKANSAS632024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA582024
Beloit 2KANSAS572018
ColdwaterKANSAS552022
WeinertTEXAS491994
HaysKANSAS452014
Ash ValleyKANSAS442019
BerwetKANSAS392024
BookerTEXAS392024
WellingtonKANSAS382024
LeovilleKANSAS362018
HaskellTEXAS362024
BassettNEBRASKA352024
BeaverOKLAHOMA352018
Piester LakeNEBRASKA322024
HawleyTEXAS302024
HendleyNEBRASKA292024
CulbertsonNEBRASKA282024
HunterOKLAHOMA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.