BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 8.4–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 8.4–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026178.225
2027178.326
2028178.326
2029178.426
2030178.426

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Horned Lark in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArthurNEBRASKA1562025
StrattonNEBRASKA1252025
MisslerKANSAS1122019
BookerTEXAS1062025
RexfordKANSAS762025
GoveKANSAS672022
GrayKANSAS652019
Beloit 2KANSAS572018
ColdwaterKANSAS552022
CulbertsonNEBRASKA532025
WeinertTEXAS491994
WellingtonKANSAS482025
SurpriseNEBRASKA472025
HaysKANSAS452014
Ash ValleyKANSAS442019
CoopertonOKLAHOMA402025
LeovilleKANSAS362018
BeaverOKLAHOMA352018
DaltonKANSAS342025
Crescent LkNEBRASKA322025
HunterOKLAHOMA272024
AlbertKANSAS262025
HaskellTEXAS252025
HawleyTEXAS252025
HamptonNEBRASKA242025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.