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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Edwards Plateau has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-49%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 297% by 2001 — from 0.07 in 1996 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±266.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+297%Change by 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2001 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±266.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 297% by 2001 — from 0.07 in 1996 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±266.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682001
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
19970.320.000.99
19980.310.000.98
19990.300.000.97
20000.290.000.96
20010.280.000.95

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Horned Lark in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PidcokeTEXAS101995
San SabaTEXAS21969
KempnerTEXAS11994
AdamsvilleTEXAS11995
LeakeyTEXAS11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.