BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.0–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.0–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.13.3
20262.21.13.3
20272.11.03.3
20282.11.03.2
20292.11.03.2

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PeruOHIO161978
OrleansNEW-YORK122024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK112024
PittsfieldOHIO102024
LenoxOHIO101981
RushvilleNEW-YORK92024
MaysvilleOHIO92001
MacdougallNEW-YORK72024
LattasburgOHIO72024
CastileNEW-YORK62024
NaplesNEW-YORK62024
WaylandOHIO62016
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA51979
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA52018
West SenecaNEW-YORK41991
NashvilleNEW-YORK41986
WaddingtonNEW-YORK41998
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA42023
GhentNEW-YORK31978
DuanesburgNEW-YORK31989
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK32024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK32023
ByronNEW-YORK32024
HebronOHIO32016
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.