BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.0–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.0–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.03.2
20272.11.03.2
20282.11.03.2
20292.11.03.2
20302.11.03.2

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Horned Lark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK182025
PeruOHIO161978
OrleansNEW-YORK152025
MacdougallNEW-YORK122025
ByronNEW-YORK112025
PittsfieldOHIO102024
LenoxOHIO101981
MaysvilleOHIO92001
CastileNEW-YORK82025
WaylandOHIO62016
RushvilleNEW-YORK52025
NaplesNEW-YORK52025
LattasburgOHIO52025
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA51979
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK42025
West SenecaNEW-YORK41991
NashvilleNEW-YORK41986
WaddingtonNEW-YORK41998
GhentNEW-YORK31978
DuanesburgNEW-YORK31989
HebronOHIO32016
Valley CityOHIO32025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22022
Canadice LNEW-YORK22025
SheridanNEW-YORK21980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.