BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Northern Rockies has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.0026
2026120.0025
2027120.0025
2028120.0025
2029110.0025

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Horned Lark in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Malheur Res.OREGON2712023
Bear CreekWYOMING1892024
Black Rock 2WYOMING1752024
Patrick DrawWYOMING1741980
Flamin GorgeWYOMING1722024
Black RockWYOMING1672001
Patrick Draw 6WYOMING1652024
BairoilWYOMING1382024
DiamondvilleWYOMING1361982
Patrick Draw 5WYOMING1332009
Gas HillsWYOMING1192012
Neponset ResUTAH1182018
HarmonyWYOMING1172023
WamsutterWYOMING1112024
Rock RiverWYOMING1032022
FarsonWYOMING942024
OttoWYOMING932024
Seedskadee 2WYOMING922024
Crane CreekIDAHO892019
MckinnonWYOMING881986
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING841983
Elk HornWYOMING772018
FrannieWYOMING772024
WorlandWYOMING772024
Patrick Draw 4WYOMING742002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.