BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Horned Lark In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Northern Rockies has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Horned Lark in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Horned Lark In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026120.0026
2027120.0025
2028120.0025
2029110.0025
2030110.0024

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Horned Lark in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Malheur Res.OREGON2712023
Bear CreekWYOMING1992025
Patrick DrawWYOMING1741980
Black RockWYOMING1672001
Patrick Draw 6WYOMING1512025
Black Rock 2WYOMING1372025
DiamondvilleWYOMING1361982
WamsutterWYOMING1352025
Flamin GorgeWYOMING1352025
Patrick Draw 5WYOMING1332009
BairoilWYOMING1232025
Gas HillsWYOMING1192012
Neponset ResUTAH1182018
FarsonWYOMING1122025
Rock RiverWYOMING1032022
Seedskadee 2WYOMING922024
Crane CreekIDAHO892019
MckinnonWYOMING881986
HarmonyWYOMING842025
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING841983
SweetwaterWYOMING822025
OttoWYOMING812025
FrannieWYOMING792025
Elk HornWYOMING772018
ArmintoWYOMING762025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.