BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Horned Lark In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGrassland birds

Horned Lark in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Horned Lark has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.12 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Horned Lark in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.12 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.63
20250.000.000.63
20260.000.000.63
20270.000.000.63
20280.000.000.63

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Horned Lark in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gambill Ref.TEXAS52021
DuranTEXAS41998
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA31984
LockhartTEXAS31968
RhomeTEXAS31982
WalburgTEXAS32019
MegargelTEXAS32023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA21989
LocoOKLAHOMA21982
KosseTEXAS22004
OsageTEXAS21970
GrafordTEXAS22010
CottonwoodTEXAS22021
SadlerTEXAS21975
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA11976
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12005
NobleOKLAHOMA11986
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11977
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA11996
TatumsOKLAHOMA12012
DuncanOKLAHOMA12023
SkiatookOKLAHOMA11997
HobsonTEXAS11988
CampbelltonTEXAS12009
MuldoonTEXAS11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.